TW in twitter

20220520

A very interesting tweet appeared on Twitter today [1].

At this stage, I have no doubt that #supportZeroCOVID. The reason is in [2].

 

However, Eric Feigl-Ding Liang made a mistake.

 

Taiwan is not in the choice of freedom and death.Instead, we give up freedom and stay home as possible as we can without GOV's restrictions. On the other hand, the gov choose the wrong strategy and lead us toward more deaths.

 

In fact, in the past two years, Taiwan's #ZeroCOVID strategy supported

people were as free as birds,

except the 3+11 event with the 3rd lever alerts.

(May 19 ~ July 26, two months and seven days).

 

Due to the COVID-19: Stringency Index has been revised and has no old charts online,  this post uses the archived fig[3] which was used to "chat" with Twitters on October 1, 2021.(the Figure compared New Zealand, Australia and Taiwan, showing that if #NPIs respond quickly it would save more lives.) In 2022, this chart data has been added the US NPIs [4]

 

In sum,

The 2022 fig shows that Taiwan's NPIs are the same as the lowest (20~30) like in old times.

The US, New Zealand and Australia have challenged omicron with the level of 40~60 .

 

Taiwan, 20220407, gives up the #ZeroCOVID, tragically.

Deaths (2022518) a month later surpassed last year's 3+11 peak [4], tragically.

 

God bless Taiwan, Amen!

今天的推特出現一則很有趣的推文[1]。

美國華裔流行病學和健康經濟學家丁亮(Eric Feigl-Ding)，

新英格蘭復雜系統研究所COVID工作組負責人、

世衛顧問和COVID-19專家委員。

用台灣和中國比較 #與新冠共存 和 #清零 :

-----------------------------------

兩條路的選擇—

台灣放棄了，讓新冠病毒肆虐。

中國大陸並沒有放棄，代價是一些自由。

但台灣的死亡不言自明。

那麼FREEDOM(自由):DEATH(死亡)匯率是多少？

多少自由值得一死？

-----------------------------------

我，現階段，毫無疑問 #支持清零。原因是[2]。

不過，丁亮有一點弄錯了。

台灣並在非自由和死亡的選擇，

而是放棄自由 (只是被稱為 "#自主性防疫")

而選擇死亡 (一直用和其他國家的致死率比較，來說服國人...)

因為，過去兩年，台灣的清零策略，

除了3+11時有 #三級警戒，

5月19日 ~ 7月26日(二個月零七天)外，

其他日子都比世界還要 #逍遙自在 !

由於經常使用的 COVID-19: Stringency Index，

2022年改版加入EUA疫苗變數，

圖表介面只提供2022年後的呈現，

因此本文以2021年10月1日和推特網友"聊天"時的 #典藏畫面[3]，

(主要比較紐澳台，說明 #NPIs反應快 可以拯救更多生命)

2022年圖表資料加入美國 [4]

小結:

2022顯示台灣NPIs一樣是最低(20~30)

美國、紐澳挑戰omicron(40~60)

很不幸的，台灣在20220407宣布放棄清零。

很不幸的，一個月後518死亡超過去年3+11高峰[4]。

上帝看守保護台灣，阿門! 

 

Source:
[1] 20220520: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1527449929047760913
[2] 20220123: https://www.facebook.com/andrea.lse/posts/10223685491619189
[3] 20211001: https://twitter.com/andreaweiching/status/1443769789193678853
[4] 20220520: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=population_density&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~TWN

In May 2022, Taiwan open the way for Omicron? 2022的5月，台灣開道路給全世界的 Omicron ?

2022的5月，台灣開道路給全世界的 Omicron ?
In May 2022, Taiwan open the way for Omicron?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 

圖一顯示，目前世界新冠疫情主要是下降的趨勢，但台灣相反，一枝獨秀。
Fig1 shows that the current world's COVID-19 is mainly on a downward trend, but Taiwan is on the contrary, rising straight.

圖二顯示，世界各國取消公共活動狀態，台灣目前疫情最嚴重，但並未規定取消公共活動。
和英國一樣自由，比美國、日本都還鬆。
Fig 2 shows that many countries have canceled public activities. Taiwan is currently the most severely affected by Omicron, but it has no rule for the cancellation of public activities. It is as free as the United Kingdom, and looser than the United States and Japan.

圖三顯示，世界各國2022年1月11日Omicron 疫情時取消公共活動狀態。理論上，台灣現階段應該是和世界此時一樣， 採取阻斷病毒策略。
Fig 3 shows the cancellation of public activities in countries around the world during the Omicron outbreak on January 11, 2022. In theory, at this stage, Taiwan should adopt the same virus blocking or disrupting strategy as the rest of the world.

圖四顯示，世界各國限制公眾集會狀態，台灣目前疫情最嚴重，但並未規定限制公眾集會。
和英國一樣自由，比美國、日本都還鬆。
Fig 4 shows that countries around the world are restricting public gatherings. Taiwan is currently the most severely affected, but there are no restrictions on public gatherings.
It is as free as the United Kingdom, and looser than the United States and Japan.

圖五學校停課、圖六待在家要求 圖七大眾交通管制等都顯示同樣的趨勢，台灣在Omicron大軍來襲時， 防疫管制比其他國家鬆 ...
Fig5: School Closures, Fig 6: Stay-at-home Requirements, Fig 7 Public Transport Closures. All show the same trend. When the Omicron came, Taiwan's COVID-19
prevention control was looser than other countries ...
-----------------------------------------------------------------

台灣現況證明了什麼 ?
醫用口罩就是最強對抗COVID-19的武器。
帶好戴緊吧! 朋友們!
What does the current situation in Taiwan prove?
Medical masks are the strongest weapon against COVID-19.
Wear it tight! Friends!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

政策回應研究是來自牛津冠狀病毒政府回應跟踪器 (OxCGRT)計畫。
The research we provide on policy responses is sourced from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). [2]

 

Source:

Fig1: COVID-19 Confirmed Cases
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=true&country=OWID_WRL~Europe~North+America~Asia~Oceania~South+America~Africa~TWN

Fig2: Cancellation of Public Events
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/public-events-covid?time=latest

Fig3: Cancellation of Public Events (20220-01-11)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/public-events-covid?time=2022-01-11

Fig4: Restrictions on public gatherings
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/public-gathering-rules-covid

Fig 5: School Closures
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/school-closures-covid?time=latest

Fig 6: Stay-at-home Requirements
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/stay-at-home-covid
 

Fig 7:Public Transport Closures

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/public-transport-covid

F8: Workplace Closures
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/workplace-closures-covid

 

 

 

The Excess Mortality of Taiwan and New Zealand for COVID-19 /超額死亡 (2020-2022): 台灣和紐西蘭

The Excess Mortality of Taiwan and New Zealand for COVID-19

去年年底我擔憂疫苗不良事件, 因此使用 #超額死亡 來觀察可能的影響 [1]。
但反對者聲稱，每年冬天原本就死亡率較高，即使我解釋什麼是超額死亡的定義。 

Late last year I was concerned about vaccine adverse events [1],
so I used the #ExcessMortality to look at the possible impact.
But opponents argued that the death rate is inherently higher every winter,
even if I have explained the definition of the Excess Mortality.

4.5個月後，台灣放棄 #清零。
我再重新檢視一次超額死亡，
這一次加入紐西蘭作為對照組(和台灣冬夏相反)，
真實情況更為清晰了。

After 4.5 months, Taiwan gave up the #ZeroCOVID.
I re-examine the the Excess Mortality,
This time, New Zealand was added as a control group (as opposed to Taiwan's winter and summer),
The real situation is quite clearer then.

-----------------------------------------------------------
[A]: 疫情初期, #COVID檢測量不夠。
[A]: In the early days, there was not enough COVID testings.

[B]: 台灣紐西蘭的清零時期，直到 #EUA疫苗問世。
[B]: The Zero COVID Stage of Taiwan and New Zealand until the EUA vaccine came out.  

[C]: 台灣冬天、紐西蘭夏天。紐西蘭EUA疫苗接種。世界 Alpha Wave
[C]: EUA vaccination in New Zealand. Taiwan in winter, New Zealand in summer. Global Alpha Wave.

[D]: 紐西蘭EUA疫苗大規模接種。
[D]: Massive EUA vaccinations in New Zealand.

[E]: 台灣夏天。台灣 [3+11] #疫情爆發事件。
[E]: Taiwan in winter, Taiwan [3+11] COVID outbreak.

[F]: 紐西蘭放棄清零。
[F]: NZ gave up the #ZeroCOVID.

[G]: 台灣、紐西蘭 #EUA疫苗大規模接種。
[G]: Massive EUA vaccinations in TW & NZ.

[H] Omicron Wave. 台灣放棄清零。
[H] Omicron Wave. Taiwan gave up the #ZeroCOVID.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Source:

[1] https://www.facebook.com/andrea.lse/posts/10223502121915061
[2] Excess Mortality: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Excess+mortality+%28%25%29&Interval=Weekly&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=TWN~NZL
[3] COVID Deaths: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=TWN~NZL
[4} Vaccination: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~TWN